06 Adversity Planning

This skill helps you prepare for inevitable crises and reframe them as opportunities. The term “adversity feature” (like a “rock garden” on a mountain bike trail) captures the mindset: adversity is not an obstacle—it’s an opportunity to develop skill and improve your project.

Core Principle

“Capitalize on the ‘adversity feature’”

Adversity in a project is inevitable AND opportune:

• Inevitable: Almost every project suffers existential crisis or sharp turn
• Opportune: Two valuable outcomes possible:
  1. Fix the problem AND upgrade the project simultaneously
  2. Develop reasoning-your-way-out skills (best growth opportunity)

Key Concepts

Why Adversity Is Inevitable:

• Technology doesn’t work as advertised
• Biological assumptions prove false
• You get scooped
• Key collaborator leaves
• Funding runs out
• Results don’t support hypothesis

Why Adversity Is Opportune:

• Forces you to think deeply about alternatives
• Removes sunk-cost bias (path is blocked anyway)
• Often leads to better projects than original plan
• Develops critical problem-solving skills
• Makes you resourceful

The Crisis Mindset:

• Wrong: “This is a disaster that delays me”
• Right: “This is the crisis I’ve been waiting for—don’t waste it”

Workflow

Phase 1: Anticipate Failure Modes

For your project, list likely adversity scenarios:

1. Technical failures: Method doesn’t work, signal too low, etc.
2. Biological surprises: System behaves unexpectedly
3. Competition: Someone scoops you
4. Resource issues: Funding, equipment, access
5. Timeline pressures: Takes longer than expected

For each, rate:

• Likelihood (Low/Medium/High)
• Impact if it happens (Low/Medium/High)
• When it might surface (early/mid/late)

Phase 2: Upgrade Opportunities

For each high-likelihood or high-impact failure mode:

Question 1: How could you fix this AND make the project better? Not just: “Get it working” Instead: “Use this as opportunity to improve the approach”

Example: Your Cell Type Can’t Be Isolated

• Fix: Develop new isolation method
• Upgrade: Make method work for whole class of cell types
• Result: Better project (technology paper) + original biology

Question 2: What skill would you develop by solving this?

• Computational: Learn new analysis method
• Technical: Master challenging technique
• Conceptual: Reason through biological complexity

Phase 3: The Ensemble View

Critical Insight: You’re not picking ONE project path—you’re picking an ENSEMBLE of possible projects that share core elements.

Your Project Ensemble:

This reframing is liberating: when adversity strikes, you’re not failing—you’re discovering which path in the ensemble you’re actually on.

Phase 4: Historical Examples

Example 1: PROTAC Discovery

• Original Plan: Create molecules to degrade specific kinase
• Crisis: Didn’t work for intended target
• Upgrade: Test across kinome systematically
• Result: Better project (mapped degradable kinome, discovered that target engagement ≠ degradation)
• Impact: More influential than if original plan succeeded

Example 2: Steroid Receptor Study

• Original Plan: Identify THE receptor for a steroid
• Crisis: Binds multiple receptors at different affinities
• Upgrade: Reframe question: How does finite receptor pool sense infinite lipids?
• Result: Combinatorial sensing model (like piano chords)
• Impact: More interesting than “receptor X binds steroid Y”

Output: Adversity Playbook

Page 1: Anticipated Crises

Page 2: Upgrade Strategies For each high-priority crisis:

• The Crisis: [Description]
• Fix Strategy: [How to solve it]
• Upgrade Strategy: [How to make project better while fixing]
• Alternative Path: [New direction if fix doesn’t work]
• Ensemble Position: [How this fits in project family]

Page 3: Resilience Rituals

• Weekly check-in: Review what went wrong, what was learned
• Monthly ensemble review: Update the family of possible projects
• Crisis protocol: When major setback hits, take 2 days to think before acting
• Growth tracking: Document skills developed through adversity