Setting the file. One moment.
Skill 26 · Launchdarkly Experiment Guide
Subchapter 26.3
references/hypothesis-guide.mdMarkdown3 KBView on GitHub
A hypothesis is a testable guess: if we change this, that measurable thing will move, and here’s why. Most users freeze when asked for one. Don’t ask cold — generate candidates from the feature they picked, show the shape, and let them edit.
Changing [what you’ll change] will [increase / decrease] [the metric] for [which users], because [the reason].
A good one names four things:
| User says… | Reframe toward… |
|---|---|
| “I want more sales.” | “Which step loses people? Test a change there; metric = checkout completion or add-to-cart rate.” |
| “The new page feels better.” | “Better how — faster, clearer, more clicks? Pick the one number that captures it.” |
| “People don’t sign up.” | “Test a change to the signup flow; metric = signup completion rate for new visitors.” |
| “The app is slow.” | “Test the optimization behind a flag; metric = p95 latency or load time (numeric, lower is better).” |
E-commerce
Showing the redesigned checkout will increase checkout completion for logged-in shoppers, because it removes two form steps. Primary metric:
checkout-completed(conversion).
SaaS onboarding
Adding an interactive product tour will increase activation (first key action within 24h) for new signups, because it shortens time-to-value. Primary metric:
activated(conversion).
Content / media
Surfacing personalized recommendations will increase articles read per session, because readers find relevant content faster. Primary metric:
article-opened(numeric count per session).
Performance
Enabling the new image pipeline will decrease p95 page load time without hurting engagement, because images are served pre-optimized. Primary metric:
page-load-ms(numeric, lower is better). Guardrail:bounce-rate(should not increase).
Pricing / growth
Showing the annual plan first will increase annual-plan conversion for visitors to the pricing page, because it anchors on the better-value option. Primary metric:
annual-plan-selected(conversion).
You don’t need a power calculation to start. Nudge toward: